Reach for the Sky!

Gullz are opportunistic little beasties - we live on our wits, constantly cruise and look out for those treasured castaway bits and pieces that constitute our major diet. We wheel, circle, play 'spot the pedestrian' (see the Gullz Cardinal Rule) and generally keep a very good eye out for Number One. As dear old Darwin noted all those years ago, to Survive one must be Fitted to one's Environment. Mind you, he was rather taken by those scruffy little Galapagos Finches, but he speaks the truth still. Survive by adaptation, or perish!

Just like developers, really. All those cunning individuals who own large chunks of Marine Parade and have in some cases spent several million of those shiny gold coins to do so, must be thinking hard about the People's Republic of Christchurch's latest environment. Which is an open invitation to developers to join hands, sing from the same page in the song-book, seek a Private District Scheme Change, and apply the results thereof to Private Profit, wine, women (and possibly an UnCivil Union or two), and absolutely definitely, Song.

For who wouldn't scrarwk, squeal and cheep just a little bit, when one contemplates the goodies on offer! Just like Sister Gull Frances, when she has got the Gull Trifecta: spotted a Uniformed Person, buzzed an unsupervised toddler, and found a still-warm piece of ... whatever is there. Hunger trumps taste any day in our Darwinian world. Incentives to keep living really do matter.

As they do indeed for the Developer's sharp minds. Now ask yourself this: given the following facts, what would you try to do?

Fact 1: the Council will not follow through with Actual Planning to help Revitalisation along. It wants the developers to seek Scheme Changes itself.

Fact 2: The Revitalisation plan therefore loses most of it's Council mandate, because the Council has in effect walked away from it in practical planning terms.

Fact 3: Sea views sell very well along the entire length of the beach. As witness: the almost $800K paid at NorthShore for said view.

Fact 4: The first two or (if you pick a really unfortunate location) three storeys of any development property have no sea views, just Glorious Iceplant/Marram/Lupins. There is no real profit in these floors.

Fact 5: The dead hand of Ecanz lies over the dunes as regards Policy, Height, Non Native Cover and Coastal Policy. So no developer will attempt to take them on. The preferred course will be the Internet option - just route around obstacles (or in this case, over them). Build plenty high, to ensure lots of profitable, Sea View floor plates.

Fact 6: Any District Scheme change will cost plenty. Consider legal assistance, at $2K/day, muliply that by 6 to 10 developers (who will all want to retain individual counsel even if they collaborate in other areas) and a change timeline that cannot realistically be much less than 3 years - more if appeals wend on. Total input could be north of $5-8 million to get the scheme change through.

So, having digested all this - ask the Darwinian Developer the money question: what sort of Scheme Change would you seek, given this Environment?

The answer, young gullz, is probably not what the Council would have envisaged. It's own little Revitalisation Plan talked about 5-7 storey apartments over a modest area adjacent to the CDB (if indeed the centre of Brighton can be so classified).. Central Dead Zone (CDZ) is more like it. 5-7 storey towers could probably be learned to be loved in time, although the NIMBY's are out in force even at that modest height.

Developers, dear gulls, react to incentives and the immediate environment. they are already in the hole, money wise, for probably $15 million of direct investment. That burns up say $1.5 million every year in holding (opportunity) costs - that's $41 grand per day. You can feed a few little gullz with that sort of money. Throw in another 3 years ($4.5 million holding), $8 million to get a Scheme Change, and, what the heck, let's imagine a convoluted appeal process that burns up another $3million. Add that lot all up and you have - um - $30.5 million in the red.

(For Gullz sake, Answer the Question! Oh, all right.)

As a developer, I'd go for for the highest, most fabulously Profitable set of boxy little apartments I could possibly get away with.

I would definitely not ask for 8 storeys and 48 large units, selling for say $600K average each. That's only $28.8 million gross, direct build and fitout would probably run to 20 million, and I'm stuck with a one-fifth share of $30 million Planning costs too! I'm never going to get my Ferrari with this sort of profit!

No, by Gullz, I'd go for 30 storeys, and pack in 8 units per plate, and sell them for $300K each. The build cost goes up to say 50 million, my share of the Hideous Planning Change is still $6 million, but my gross is now $72 million. That's a Ferrari, a Zonda, and I still have change! Yippee!

Wait, what about the Council and the residents the damn Council is supposed to represent, I hear some naive gullz in the back row squawking about? Well, what about it, gullz?

Who paid for the Scheme Change? ME!
Who put up with the flack from Furious Hippies, tired pensioners and their damn catz, sad residents, and stupid ECanz who, unaccountably didn't see this coming? ME!
Who relinqished the chance to go for a moderate scheme change and stick to the 5-7 storey guideline? NOT ME! The STUPID COUNCIL!
Who has just set up a Perverse Incentive for all the clubbed-together developers to do the Same Damn Thing? THE STUPID COUNCIL!

I've got my Ferrari, and a small island offshore, and I don't have to live with anything I've built.

HAR HAR HAR! Or, Yo Ho Ho, and an entire pub full of rum. Oh, and Women and Song.

As a wise old economics lecturer once told me: a Monopoly is a Very Bad Thing. Unless, of course, you happen to Own one!

(A sadder and Wiser Gull doffs his Developer cap, and now speaks once more as - er - himself)

Incentives really do matter, don't they. Drop a tiny but well-formed potato chip, and we Gullz will have at it. Drop a $100 bill in the street, and see how long it flutters about. Relinquish the leadership role in District Planning to private developers, and see what you will get.

Grinning lawyers, quite a few over-tall Tsunami Refuges, and the odd Ferrari. Or three.

Excuse me, I feel an 'I told you so' coming on. I'd better find a Pedestrian to spot with it.